You know that feeling when you’re packing up at the end of a market day and your food cooler is still pretty full?

Yeah. That one.

It’s demoralizing in a way that’s kind of hard to explain to people who don’t do this. Because it’s not just unsold food – it’s your time, your supplies, your early morning, your energy. And when it happens consistently, it starts to mess with your head a little.

Am I pricing wrong? Is my food just… not that good? Did I do something to upset people?

I’ve been there. And I want to tell you something before we go any further:

It’s probably not your food.

There are some very specific, very fixable reasons why local food businesses – cottage bakers, food truck owners, farmers market vendors, farmstand operators – consistently go home with product they couldn’t sell.

And once you really understand the WHY, then we can start talking about how to fix the issue.

So let’s talk about it.

Reason #1: You Can’t Control the Variables, But You’re Relying on Them Anyway

Okay so let’s start with the one that feels most obvious, because I think we all know this deep down and just don’t always want to say it out loud.

You cannot control the weather. You cannot control foot traffic.

You cannot control whether there’s a competing event in town that’s pulling people away from the market, or whether this is somehow the same weird weekend it was last year where nobody showed up for no discernible reason whatsoever.

If you’ve been doing this for more than five minutes, you already know that market days can be completely unpredictable in the most baffling ways.

A gorgeous, perfect Saturday – empty. A cold, drizzly, genuinely unpleasant morning – somehow packed.

I’ve noticed in my own town that big local events can swing things wildly… and not even consistently! The same event that made one year incredible for sales made another year slow as molasses. You just can’t predict it.

And here’s the part that really matters:

The problem isn’t that these variables exist.

The problem comes when our business is reliant on them going our way.

That’s relying on luck.

And we’re going to come back to that idea a lot in this post, because it’s really the thread running through all four of these reasons.

Reason #2: There’s a Communication Gap (And It’s Probably Bigger Than You Think)

Here’s a truth that took me a while to really internalize: your customers are not thinking about you between market days.

Before you take that personally – neither are you thinking about every business you love.

That’s just how humans work. We’re busy. We’ve got stuff going on.

And unless something puts a business on our radar right when we need it to be, we just… don’t think about it.

Think about your own life. There are probably places you genuinely love that you haven’t been to in six months – not because you stopped loving them, but because nothing reminded you to go.

Your customers are the same way with you.

Most of your buyers aren’t going to your Facebook page to check what you’re selling this week.

(I mean YES some of them are, but most of them aren’t)

They’re just not. They’re living their lives.

And if something doesn’t pop up to remind them that you exist and tell them exactly where to find you – they’ll sometimes even go right past you without even realizing they missed you.

This is what I call the communication gap.

And closing that gap – making sure the right people know where you’ll be, when you’ll be there, and what you’re bringing – is one of the highest-leverage things you can do for your sales.

BUT – here’s the thing.

Most of us are trying to close that gap with tools that aren’t actually doing the job. Which brings me to reason number three.

Reason #3: The Algorithm Is Not Your Friend (And It Was Never Designed to Be)

Okay, I have a lot of feelings about this one. Buckle up.

Posting on social media is not a marketing strategy.

I know, I know, I know… that’s not what you were told, and I know it probably feels like a bold statement. But I mean it.

Posting on social media is a gamble.

Here’s what’s actually happening when you post: your content reaches somewhere between 3–8% of your followers.

It lasts maybe a day in anyone’s feed, if you’re lucky, before it disappears forever into the void.

And a huge chunk of the people who DO see it? Not even close to you geographically – because the algorithm is grouping you with similar content creators, not with people who can actually buy from you.

I noticed this myself as a baker. My Facebook feed is full of posts from other cottage bakers… people making incredible delicious-looking things that I will never, ever buy because they’re thousands of miles away.

I am a completely wasted view for their business. And the same thing is happening to your posts.

The algorithm doesn’t know you’re selling a local product. As of right now, it doesn’t compensate for proximity.

It just sees that you talk about cinnamon rolls, so it shows your posts to other people who talk about cinnamon rolls – most of whom are not in your town.

And then there’s this – if you include a link in your post that takes people off of Facebook? (as in – a link to where they can preorder, or whatever)

Do this, and Facebook will actively show that post to fewer people. Because keeping people on the platform is their goal.

Getting customers to your pre-order page is not their goal.

I worked with a food truck owner once who had a really bad sales day at a farmers market. Traffic was a little low, but nothing that should have explained how bad the numbers were.

He mentioned offhandedly that he’d barely gotten any engagement on his Facebook post that week – usually he got a lot more.

So we went and looked at the actual reach statistics in Facebook. He has about a thousand followers. That particular post had reached a fraction of his normal numbers. Not because anything was wrong with his food or his business — the algorithm just wasn’t in his favor that day.

And that’s the main reason why he went home with leftovers. Because his Facebook post didn’t get traction.

That story has stuck with me. Because here’s the thing –

You cannot build a reliable business on the foundation of an unreliable marketing system.

I’m not saying delete your social media accounts. I still post.

But social media cannot be your foundation.

Why?

Because you don’t own it, you don’t control it, and it can be taken from you or stop working at any time.

Here’s a stat that will make your jaw drop a little: text message marketing has 98% deliverability. That means 98% of the people on your list will actually see your message.

Email marketing runs 30–50% open rates.

Compare that to the 3–8% follower reach you’re getting on social media, on a good day.

There is no comparison. And yet most local food businesses are spending all their marketing energy on the platform with the worst numbers.

Reason #4: You Might Be Overproducing Out of Fear (This One’s a Little Uncomfortable)

Okay, I’m going to be honest with you here, because I’ve done this myself and I still catch myself wanting to do it.

A lot of us overproduce because we don’t want to disappoint someone who comes by late and finds us sold out.

That feeling is real, it’s human, and if you sell food – especially food you make with your hands and your heart – you probably know exactly what I’m talking about.

We love feeding people. We love watching someone take that first bite.

And the thought of someone walking up to our booth excited about our chicken and dumplings, only to hear “sorry, I’m sold out” – ugh.

So we make more. Just in case.

But here’s the math problem with that: one late customer who wanted your sold-out item does not pay for an entire extra batch.

And for most of us, especially bakers, it’s not like we can just make three extra cookies. It’s a batch or it’s not.

So we make the batch, the one or two extra customers don’t materialize, and we drive home with a full cooler again.

Being sold out is not a failure. It isn’t “bad.” Being sold out is information.

Personally, my goal is to be sold out by about 85–90% through my day. That tells me I’ve served the majority of the demand without overproducing to the point where I’m going home with more than I can use.

CAVEAT: There are exceptions, and I want to be clear about that.

When you’re doing a brand new venue or event you’ve never done before, it absolutely makes sense to produce a little more so you can gauge demand.

I did a big Christmas market a while back and I deliberately made more than I expected to sell because I needed to know what the demand actually was. But I also hedged myself – I made cookie dough that went straight into the freezer so I could bake more if needed, so what didn’t sell at the market got me almost all the way through January.

That’s the difference: overproducing with intention and a recovery plan versus overproducing out of fear of saying “sold out.”

If you’re going to make extra, use the freezer. Hold components back. Build in recoverability.

But don’t make a double batch just because you don’t want people to be disappointed. That’s a boundary-with-yourself problem, not a sales problem.

So What’s the Fix? Systems Over Luck.

Here’s the thing that connects all four of these reasons: they all involve relying on something you can’t control.

The weather.

Whether people happen to see your post.

Whether someone happens to drive by at the right moment.

Whether your supply magically matches demand.

That’s just luck. And luck is not a business strategy.

Say it with me: LUCK IS NOT A BUSINESS STRATEGY.

What we need instead are systems – repeatable, reliable ways of reaching our customers that don’t depend on variables we can’t control.

I know “systems” can sound boring and corporate and like something that requires a lot of fancy tech. It doesn’t.

The most basic version looks like this: you collect phone numbers or email addresses from people who have already bought from you, and you reach out to them directly before you show up somewhere.

That’s it. That’s the foundation.

I had a Saturday not long ago where my cinnamon rolls just were not moving. I’m still figuring out my display, so I was sitting there wondering what was going on.

And then I realized – I’d forgotten to text my list. So I sent one text to my 30-something person text list.

Ten minutes later, a customer walked in – she’d literally just left the gym (I LOL’d when she told me that), saw my text – and she bought every single cinnamon roll I had. Every one.

That is what a system does. It makes your results predictable instead of accidental.

I also use Hot Plate – it’s a free platform where I can create a menu and let people pre-order and pay online before they even come to pick up.

No back-and-forth DMs, no chasing people down for payment, no “I meant to come by but forgot.” They ordered, they paid, they’ll show up.

Systems aren’t fancy.

Yes, they can feel a little nerdy.

But they are where the actual freedom is – because they work whether or not the algorithm likes you that week, whether or not the weather cooperates, whether or not foot traffic is good.

Slow is smooth, and smooth is fast.

If you are constantly scrambling because you’re relying on conditions you can’t control, stepping back to build even one simple system will change everything.

Before You Go, I Want to Ask You Something

Think about the people who have already eaten your food and loved it. The regulars, the people who have told you how good it is, the ones who come looking for you specifically.

If 20 more of those people (people who already know your food is good) knew exactly when, where, and how to buy from you this week… would you sell more?

Sit with that for a second.

If your answer is yes – and I’m betting it is – then your food isn’t the problem.

Your quality isn’t the problem.

Your skill isn’t the problem.

The problem is that you’re not on their radar when you need to be on their radar.

And that is a communication problem.

Which is GREAT because that means it’s fixable.

If your answer is no – more awareness wouldn’t lead to more sales – then it’s worth looking at whether people clearly understand what you sell, whether it’s obvious when your orders are open, and whether you’re communicating clearly enough for someone to actually make a purchase decision.

That’s usually a clarity issue, not a “post more” issue.

Either way, the fix is not doing more. It’s doing the right things.

Ready to Start Building Systems Instead of Crossing Your Fingers?

One of the main things I focus on is bridging that communication gap via email marketing, getting found online, etc.

And in order for you, or anyone else, to be able to implement what I teach, there’s some things that you’ll want to have in place.

One big one is to have an email list set up – legally and correctly (no, you can’t just email people from your home email address without issues).

It’s not difficult, though.

I put together a free starter kit for local food business owners who are ready to stop relying on luck and start putting something real in place.

It’ll walk you through getting your email list set up from scratch, and help you make sure you’re actually showing up when someone in your area searches for what you sell. Both of those things are foundational – and neither of them requires you to dance on TikTok or beg the algorithm for scraps.

Grab it for free at bethanyarcher.com/start.

And if you want to hear the full conversation – including the cinnamon roll story, the food truck client whose entire slow day came down to the algorithm, and a lot more – you can listen to the full podcast episode here.

This is what On Your Terms is all about: building a local food business that actually works for you, on your terms – not at the mercy of a platform that doesn’t care whether you sell out or drive home full.

I’ll see you next week. 🧁

Bethany